Federal data show that producer prices for HVAC equipment were higher in August 2026 than a year earlier. This guide covers the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) producer price index, selected 2025 and 2026 Section 232 tariff actions on steel, aluminum and copper, and what EPA has said about refrigerant prices. It also covers manufacturer price increases reported by ACHR News, a trade publication. We found no source in this research that measures installed HVAC prices or splits the price change by cause.
What the BLS producer price index measures
BLS publishes a producer price index (PPI) for air-conditioning, refrigeration, and forced air heating equipment manufacturing, series PCU333415333415. The index is not seasonally adjusted, and BLS shows a base date of December 1982. BLS says its PPI program "measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output." It does not measure installed prices. A rise in this index does not tell you how much a homeowner's installed price changed. We found no BLS index for installed HVAC prices in our research.
BLS also publishes a commodity index for air conditioning and refrigeration equipment, series WPU1148. Its title does not include forced-air heating equipment. In both series, BLS marks the May through August 2026 values as preliminary.
HVAC producer prices from 2025 to August 2026
The industry index stood at 298.002 in January 2025 and 312.596 in August 2025. It was 309.828 in September 2025 and 311.870 in December 2025. In 2026 it rose every month, from 313.036 in January to 324.820 in August (preliminary).
By our calculation from these BLS values:
- The industry index rose from 312.596 in August 2025 to 324.820 in August 2026, about 3.9%.
- The industry index rose from 298.002 in January 2025 to 324.820 in August 2026, about 9.0%.
- The commodity index rose from 312.760 in August 2025 to 325.649 in August 2026, about 4.1%.
These percents are our arithmetic. BLS does not publish them on these data pages.
Producer price index, air-conditioning, refrigeration and forced-air heating equipment manufacturing
- January 2021211.6
- December 2021241.33
- December 2022282.73
- January 2025298
- August 2025312.6
- August 2026 (preliminary)324.82
HVAC producer prices in 2021 and 2022
The same industry index rose from 211.6 in January 2021 to 241.331 in December 2021, about 14.1% by our calculation. By December 2022 it was 282.725, about 33.6% above January 2021. These changes cover different lengths of time than the 2025–2026 figures, so they are not a direct comparison.
Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum and copper
Presidential proclamations in 2025 and 2026 changed Section 232 tariffs on imported steel, aluminum and copper. The table lists the actions in this article's sources.
| Date | Proclamation | What it did |
|---|---|---|
| February 10, 2025 (signed) | Proclamation 10895 | Raised the aluminum tariff from 10% to 25% |
| June 4, 2025 (effective) | Proclamation 10947, signed June 3, 2025 | Raised tariffs on steel and aluminum articles and their derivatives from 25% to 50% |
| August 1, 2025 (effective) | Proclamation 10962, signed July 30, 2025 | Set a 50% tariff on semi-finished copper products and intensive copper derivative products |
| April 6, 2026 (effective) | Proclamation 11021, signed April 2, 2026 | Applied the Section 232 duties on aluminum, steel and copper to the full customs value of the product, regardless of metal content |
| June 1, 2026 (signed) | Proclamation 11032 | Placed certain HVAC systems and components that are predominantly for residential use in a temporarily reduced 15% duty category |
Proclamation 11032 sums up the system set in April 2026. It describes a 50% duty on products made of those metals and a 25% duty on derivative products that tend to be mostly made of them. It also describes a temporarily reduced 15% duty on fixed industrial machinery and power equipment. The proclamation then added "agricultural equipment and certain HVAC systems and components that are predominantly for residential use" to that 15% category.
The proclamation says "certain" HVAC items. We did not confirm which products are on the covered list, so we cannot say whether a given furnace, air conditioner or part is included. The tariff actions and the index rise happened over the same period. We found no source in this research that measures how much, if any, of the index change came from tariffs.
Refrigerant prices and the HFC phasedown
In a final rule published May 26, 2026, EPA said it "recognizes that the price of refrigerant using legacy HFCs may rise as the phasedown continues." EPA added that it "expects that demand for these refrigerants, such as R-410A, will respond to these price signals." This statement is about refrigerant prices, not equipment prices.
EPA's sector table, last updated August 28, 2026, lists a GWP limit of 700 for residential and light commercial air conditioning and heat pump systems, with an installation compliance date of January 1, 2025. A footnote lists no installation compliance date for systems where all specified components were manufactured or imported before that date. Another footnote says components used to repair existing systems are not subject to these restrictions. We found no EPA estimate of how this change affects equipment prices. Our guide to the R-410A phase-out covers the refrigerant rules.
Manufacturer price increases reported by ACHR News
ACHR News, a trade publication, compiles manufacturer price announcements. These reports are secondary sources, and we did not review the manufacturers' own letters.
On March 2, 2026, ACHR News reported that HVACR manufacturers continued rolling out price adjustments in March, "with most increases landing in the low- to mid-single-digit range."
On September 18, 2026, ACHR News reported that "Trane has already implemented two residential increases this year." One took effect April 1 and another July 1, "both for up to 5%." The same article reported that Carrier faces increased input costs, including tariffs, fuel, copper, steel and aluminum.
For the efficiency rules that apply to new equipment, see our guides to central air conditioners and furnaces.