This guide explains what federal sources count in the cost of replacing a heating and cooling system. It also points to the federal figure behind each of our cost guides. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) built installed-cost figures for two rules. Its 2017 rule for central air conditioners and heat pumps uses 2015 dollars, and its 2023 furnace rule uses 2022 dollars. Guidehouse and Leidos prepared a March 2023 study for the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). It gives a separate set of figures in 2022 dollars. All of them are federal modeling inputs, not 2026 quotes. We did not adjust any figure for inflation. We also do not add an AC figure to a furnace figure or combine figures from different dollar years.
What DOE counts in a full HVAC replacement
DOE's 2017 direct final rule for central air conditioners and heat pumps lists what goes into its life-cycle cost calculation. One input is "the installed cost to the consumer (purchase price, including sales tax where appropriate, plus installation cost)." The rule also has a technical support document, dated December 2016. It says installation cost is "the price to the consumer of labor and materials (other than the actual equipment) associated with the installation of a new central air conditioner or heat pump in a home."
DOE's 2023 furnace rule lists more items. It says installation cost "includes all labor, overhead, and any materials costs associated with the replacement of an existing furnace or the installation of a furnace in a new home..." It also counts "delivery of the new furnace, removal of the existing furnace, and any applicable permit fees." The rule describes basic installation costs that "apply to both condensing and non-condensing gas furnaces." Those costs "include furnace set-up and transportation, gas piping, ductwork, electrical hook-up, permit and removal/disposal fees..." Where it applies, they also include "additional labor hours for an attic installation."
The table below lists the items DOE says are inside its installed-cost figures.
| Item | Where DOE lists it |
|---|---|
| Purchase price, including sales tax where appropriate | 2017 central AC and heat pump rule |
| Manufacturer selling price and distribution chain markups | 2023 furnace rule |
| Labor and materials other than the equipment | 2016 central AC and heat pump support document |
| Overhead | 2023 furnace rule |
| Furnace set-up and transportation, and delivery of the new furnace | 2023 furnace rule |
| Gas piping, ductwork and electrical hook-up | 2023 furnace rule (basic installation) |
| Permit fees | 2023 furnace rule |
| Removal and disposal of the existing furnace | 2023 furnace rule |
| Additional labor hours for an attic installation, where applicable | 2023 furnace rule (basic installation) |
Sources: DOE direct final rule, 82 FR 1786 (January 6, 2017) and its December 2016 support document; DOE final rule, 88 FR 87502 (December 18, 2023).
DOE keeps running costs out of the installed cost. Its furnace rule defines life-cycle cost as "total installed cost (manufacturer selling price, distribution chain markups, sales tax, and installation costs) plus operating costs (expenses for energy use, maintenance, and repair)." Our HVAC repair cost guide covers the repair and maintenance figures. Our HVAC permits guide covers permits.
Coil-only and blower-coil systems
DOE prices coil-only and blower-coil central AC systems separately. Its support document says, "Coil-only units utilize the blower from an existing furnace." EIA's study states which type each table covers. It says its central AC figures are for "coil -only" systems, "meaning they do not include a blower." Its heat pump figures are for "blower-coil" systems, "meaning they include a blower." When you read any AC figure, check which type it describes.
How DOE splits equipment and installation costs
DOE's furnace technical support document is dated September 2023. It splits DOE's averages into the price of the furnace and the cost to install it. The consumer price is DOE's average for non-weatherized gas furnaces bought in 2029. It does not include installation. The chart shows both parts and the total at 80% and 95% AFUE, in 2022 dollars. In each case, DOE's installation figure is larger than its consumer price.
DOE average consumer price, installation cost and total installed cost, non-weatherized gas furnace (2022 dollars)
- 80% AFUE: consumer price (2022$)$1,044
- 80% AFUE: installation (2022$)$2,527
- 80% AFUE: total installed (2022$)$3,571
- 95% AFUE: consumer price (2022$)$1,239
- 95% AFUE: installation (2022$)$2,745
- 95% AFUE: total installed (2022$)$3,984
DOE lists the same $2,745 installation cost, in 2022 dollars, at every level from 90% to 98% AFUE. The section on condensing furnaces below covers the venting items DOE counts at those levels. Our furnace cost guide has all five efficiency levels.
DOE's 2016 support document for central ACs also lists the cost to install, apart from the equipment. The section on system size below gives those figures. EIA's tables list a retail equipment cost next to each total installed cost, in 2022 dollars.
Federal cost figures behind each of our cost guides
The table gives each guide's headline federal figure, its dollar year, its source and the system it describes. The rows use two dollar years and describe different systems, so do not add or compare figures across rows.
| Cost guide | Headline federal figure | Dollar year | Source | What the figure describes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC replacement | $3,935 to $4,134 average total installed cost | 2015 dollars | DOE support document (December 2016), Table 8.2.33 | 3-ton split-system blower-coil central AC, 13 to 15 SEER |
| Heat pump | $4,686 to $4,806 average total installed cost | 2015 dollars | DOE support document (December 2016), Table 8.2.34 | 3-ton split-system air-source heat pump, 14 to 15 SEER |
| Furnace | $3,571 at 80% AFUE and $3,984 at 95% AFUE, average total installed cost | 2022 dollars | DOE furnace support document (September 2023), Table 8.2.13 | Non-weatherized gas furnace |
| Mini-split | $2,030 total installed cost | 2022 dollars | EIA study (March 2023) | One 12 kBtu/h ductless mini-split heat pump |
| Ductwork | No figure found | None | DOE, EIA, ENERGY STAR and Building America sources searched | Duct replacement or duct sealing |
| Repairs | $71 to $114 a year in expected repair costs, by age band | 2015 dollars | DOE support document (December 2016), Table 8.2.48 | 3-ton, 13 to 14 SEER split-system blower-coil AC; not the price of one repair |
Sources: DOE and EIA, as listed in each row. Model averages and estimates, not 2026 prices.
Our AC and heat pump guides also show EIA's estimates in 2022 dollars. A 2023 study for EIA looked at a 3-ton coil-only AC at its 2023 standard level. It put the total installed cost at $5,310 in the North and $5,520 in the South. For a 3-ton blower-coil heat pump at its 2023 standard level, it put the total installed cost at $6,810. EIA's figures come from a different study and dollar year than DOE's, so we do not compare or combine the two sets.
For ductwork, DOE's 2023 furnace rule counts ductwork as part of its basic installation costs. It does not give ductwork its own line item.
Why federal HVAC cost figures are not 2026 quotes
Every figure has a dollar year. DOE's 2016 support document for central ACs and heat pumps says, "DOE expresses all costs in 2015$." Its model assumed the product is bought in 2021. DOE calls that year "the assumed effective date of energy conservation standards for central air conditioners and heat pumps." DOE's 2023 furnace rule says, "All monetary values in this document are expressed in 2022 dollars (2022$)." The EIA study says, "All costs are shown in 2022 dollars (2022$)."
DOE's 2016 support document for central air conditioners and heat pumps looks at manufacturer selling prices, markups and sales taxes. It says they "can take on a variety of values, depending on location." As a result, the total installed cost "will not be a single-point value, but rather a distribution of values." DOE's furnace rule adds that "the vast majority of consumer furnaces are sold through a distribution channel involving a contractor, not via a retail outlet." It goes on, "Therefore prices seen on a website are unlikely to be representative of typical prices ultimately paid for by consumers."
On July 7, 2026, DOE published a request for information (91 FR 41578). It said DOE "requests comment regarding the assumptions, models, and methodologies that DOE uses in setting energy conservation standards for covered products and equipment."
What the BLS producer price index measures
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes a producer price index for air-conditioning, refrigeration and forced air heating equipment manufacturing. Its series number is PCU333415333415. The index was 313.036 in January 2026 and 324.820 in August 2026. BLS marks the May through August values as preliminary. BLS says its Producer Price Index measures "the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output." It does not measure installed prices. We did not use it to adjust any figure on this page. Our guide to 2026 HVAC equipment prices explains the index and covers selected 2025–2026 tariff actions.
What changes the cost of an HVAC installation?
Federal sources name several things that change the cost of an installation.
Condensing furnace venting
DOE "assumed that condensing furnaces that replace non-condensing furnaces do not utilize the existing venting system..." Instead, DOE assumed they "require new, dedicated plastic venting that meets all applicable building codes and manufacturer instructions." The support document lists a cost for each extra item when a non-weatherized gas furnace is replaced.
| Item (replacement installs) | Share of installs affected | Average cost (2022$) |
|---|---|---|
| Condensing: new flue venting (PVC) | 100% | $308 |
| Condensing: combustion air venting (PVC) | 62% | $324 |
| Condensing: condensate removal | 100% | $92 |
| Condensing: orphaned water heater | 7% | $806 |
| Condensing: concealing vent pipes | 5% | $603 |
| Non-condensing: updating vent connector | 23% | $328 |
| Non-condensing: updating flue vent | 8% | $990 |
Source: DOE furnace support document (September 2023), Table 8.2.10, selected rows. Model averages in 2022 dollars.
NWGFs are non-weatherized gas furnaces. The final rule says that "on average for replacement installations, the incremental installation cost is $490 for condensing NWGFs relative to non-condensing NWGFs." The figure comes from DOE's analysis in 2022 dollars.
Regional and state cost factors
DOE gives a basic installation cost for replacing a non-weatherized gas furnace, before the venting items above. It is $669 nationally, $748 in the North and $583 in the rest of the country, in 2022 dollars. DOE also lists material and labor cost factors by state. Its support document says RSMeans "provides material and labor cost factors for 295 cities and towns in the U.S." NWGF and MHGF are DOE's abbreviations for non-weatherized gas furnaces and mobile home gas furnaces. The document says, "To derive average labor cost values by state, DOE weighted the price factors by 1992-2003 NWGF and MHGF shipments by state."
| State | Plumbing/HVAC material factor | Plumbing/HVAC labor factor |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona | 1.00 | 0.76 |
| Washington | 1.00 | 1.10 |
| Texas | 0.99 | 0.59 |
| Florida | 0.99 | 0.62 |
| Ohio | 1.00 | 0.86 |
Source: DOE furnace support document (September 2023), Table 8D.4.3. These are index values, not dollar amounts, and we have not turned them into dollar estimates.
System size, compressor type and ducts
For a single-speed coil-only AC, DOE's installation cost is $853 for a 2-ton unit, $1,339 for a 3-ton unit and $2,923 for a 5-ton unit. All three are in 2015 dollars. DOE says it "added $59 to the installation costs of units with a two speed compressor and ECM indoor fan," also in 2015 dollars.
DOE's 2017 rule says a more efficient AC does not need bigger ducts. It explains that "air flow volume does not change with efficiency, so duct size does not need to change for the same tonnage unit even if the indoor coil size is bigger." For furnaces, the 2023 rule says "DOE's installation costs account for cases where significant ductwork redesign is required..." Those cases include times "when furnaces with variable-speed motors are utilizing undersized ducts." It adds that "potential ductwork modifications typically occur due to the furnace fan requirements and not necessarily due to the installation of a condensing furnace."
ENERGY STAR has a page on the benefits of duct sealing. It says that if you are installing new equipment, "a well-designed and sealed duct system may allow you to downsize to a smaller, less costly heating and cooling system that will provide better dehumidification." DOE's Building America Solution Center has a guide on ductless systems. It says putting an indoor unit in every room often does not make sense, partly because of "cost implications." Neither source gives a dollar figure.
HVAC replacement cost data we could not find
We found no government source that publishes 2026 installed prices for central air conditioners. We found no DOE efficiency rule after the 2017 rule with newer heat pump installed costs. DOE's 2017 rule and its support document give no installed cost for ductless mini-splits that we could find. We also found no multi-zone cost from a primary source. DOE's furnace figures are national, North and rest-of-country averages, not prices for cities.
We checked several utility and state program pages. They included pages from SRP and Austin Energy's residential rebates. We also checked PSE's heating rebates and Tacoma Power's heat pump page. We also checked Seattle City Light's Home Energy Solutions and the Washington State Department of Commerce's HEAR program. As of October 2026, none published an installed cost or a cost per ton for central air conditioners, heat pumps or mini-splits. We did not check utilities in Jacksonville or Columbus for these figures. For furnaces, we did not check utility pages in our five markets. For ductwork, we did not check every utility page in our five markets.
Each system has its own guide with full tables. See our guides to AC replacement costs, heat pump costs and furnace costs. We also have guides to mini-split costs, ductwork costs and repair costs. To compare heating options, see the heat pump vs. furnace calculator. Our rebate finder covers rebate programs.