This guide uses two sets of federal installed-cost figures for central air-source heat pumps. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) built one set for its 2017 efficiency rule, in 2015 dollars. A March 2023 study prepared for the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) by Guidehouse and Leidos gives the other set, in 2022 dollars. Both are federal modeling inputs, not 2026 price quotes. We did not adjust either set for inflation, and we keep them in separate tables.
DOE installed cost for a split heat pump by size
The technical support document for DOE's 2017 rule says, "DOE expresses all costs in 2015$." Its Table 8.2.34 gives average total installed costs for split-system heat pumps at three sizes. The table below shows its 14 to 15 SEER rows.
| SEER / HSPF | 2-ton (2015$) | 3-ton (2015$) | 5-ton (2015$) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14.00 / 8.20 | $3,875 | $4,686 | $7,243 |
| 14.50 / 8.37 | $3,914 | $4,721 | $7,383 |
| 15.00 / 8.80 | $3,988 | $4,806 | $7,455 |
Source: DOE technical support document (December 2016), Table 8.2.34. Model averages in 2015 dollars, not 2026 prices.
DOE average total installed cost, split-system heat pump at 14 SEER / 8.2 HSPF (2015 dollars)
- 2-ton (2015$)$3,875
- 3-ton (2015$)$4,686
- 5-ton (2015$)$7,243
The same document lists installation cost for a split heat pump on its own, without the equipment. For a single-speed unit it lists $920 (2-ton), $1,425 (3-ton) and $3,031 (5-ton). For a two-speed unit it lists $979, $1,483 and $3,090. All are in 2015 dollars.
DOE's tables rate efficiency in SEER and HSPF. EIA's 2023 tables list SEER2 and HSPF2 values next to SEER and HSPF for the same units, and the numbers differ. Our SEER2 guide covers the newer ratings.
DOE national averages by efficiency level
The summary table in DOE's 2017 direct final rule (Table V-4) gives national averages for split-system heat pumps. DOE reports these heat pump results as national figures, not by region.
| DOE table row | SEER | HSPF | Average installed cost (2015$) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Split heat pump, baseline | 14 | 8.2 | $5,246 |
| Split heat pump, recommended | 15 | 8.5 | $5,391 |
| Split heat pump, level 4 (max-tech) | 19/19/17.5 | 9.9/9.3 | $6,572 |
| Packaged heat pump, baseline | 14 | 8.0 | $5,361 |
Source: DOE direct final rule, 82 FR 1786 (January 6, 2017), Tables V-4 and V-8. Model averages in 2015 dollars.
The SEER and HSPF values above are the levels in DOE's 2017 rule tables, in the older ratings. Our SEER2 guide lists the current federal minimums.
How long DOE expects a heat pump to last
The 2017 rule says the average lifetime "is estimated to be 21 years for central air conditioners and 15 years for heat pumps." The support document gives average split heat pump lifetimes by region: 16.4 years in the North, 15.4 years in the Hot-Dry region and 15.1 years in the Hot-Humid region. These are DOE model averages.
EIA's 2022-dollar estimates for a 3-ton heat pump
The EIA study says, "All costs are shown in 2022 dollars (2022$)." Its air-source heat pump table describes 3-ton blower-coil systems.
| EIA level | SEER2 / HSPF2 | Retail equipment (2022$) | Total installed (2022$) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 typical | 14.5 / 7.3 | $4,270 | $6,880 |
| 2023 new standard | 14.3 / 7.5 | $4,110 | $6,810 |
| 2023 ENERGY STAR v6.1 | 15.2 / 7.8 | $4,380 | $6,940 |
| 2023 ENERGY STAR Cold Climate | 15.2 / 8.1 | $4,380 | $6,940 |
| 2023 high | 21.5 / 10.6 | $6,740 | $8,620 |
Source: EIA, Updated Buildings Sector Appliance and Equipment Costs and Efficiencies, Appendix A (March 2023). Estimates in 2022 dollars, not 2026 prices.
A footnote says the high costs were "derived from developing a cost-efficiency curve between retail/installed costs and SEER." The table lists an average life of 15.3 years at every level. EIA's figures come from a different study and dollar year from DOE's, so we do not compare or combine the two sets.
The federal 25C tax credit has ended
An IRS fact sheet, FS-2025-05, dated August 21, 2025, covers changes under Public Law 119-21. For the 25C energy efficient home improvement credit, it says, "The credit will not be allowed for any property placed in service after December 31, 2025." The IRS credit page says, "You can claim the credit for improvements made through December 31, 2025." Our 25C guide has the details.
SRP rebates for Phoenix-area heat pumps
Salt River Project (SRP) is a Phoenix-area public power utility. As of October 2026, it listed Cool Cash rebates per ton for heat pumps at 15.2 SEER2 or higher. It listed $75 for single-stage, $150 for multi-stage and $225 for variable-capacity compressors. The page shows no date. It says a contractor licensed in Arizona must install the system before April 30, 2027. It also says the rebate must be submitted within 6 months of installation. On split central systems, both the indoor air handler and the condensing unit must be replaced. Programs change, so confirm with your utility. For other areas, see our rebate finder and our guide to heat pump rebates from PSE, Seattle City Light and Tacoma Power.
Producer prices for air conditioning and refrigeration equipment in 2026
The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes a producer price index for air conditioning and refrigeration equipment, series WPU1148. It was 313.729 in January 2026 and 325.649 in August 2026, and BLS marks May through August as preliminary. BLS says its Producer Price Index measures "the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output." It does not measure installed prices. Our 2026 price guide explains it.
Heat pump cost data we could not find
We found no DOE efficiency rule after the 2017 rule with newer heat pump installed costs. DOE's 2023 furnace analysis models switching from gas to heat pumps, but we did not locate a stand-alone heat pump installed-cost table in it. A May 2026 ResStock measure document on cold-climate air-source heat pumps, from the National Laboratory of the Rockies, contained no installed-cost figure. As of October 2026, pages from SRP, Austin Energy, PSE, Tacoma Power, Seattle City Light and the Washington State Department of Commerce showed no installed heat pump cost. We did not check utilities in Jacksonville or Columbus.
To compare heating options, see our furnace cost guide, our dual-fuel guide and the heat pump vs. furnace calculator. For ductless systems, see mini-split costs.
For an overview of all our cost guides, see what federal sources say about HVAC replacement costs.